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March 28, 2017

European property investment market update

There’s a lot going on in Europe this year. While last year was fairly tumultuous, 2017 promises much of the same, especially on the political front.

The fallout from the populist movements that have taken a grip across the Northern Hemisphere will continue. Following the charge to Brexit led by the flamboyant, if accident prone, duo of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, the world looked on aghast as Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, becoming the most powerful leader in the ‘free world’.

Next on the agenda are national elections in France, the Netherlands, Germany and perhaps Italy. Mainland Europe is also grappling with a colourful array of right-wing politicians hoping to ride their way to power on the back of the populist vote.

The Netherlands has Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party; France has Marine Le Pen leading the Front Nationale, or Marine as she likes to be known in an effort to distance herself from her father’s more extreme politics.

Germany, however, is predicted to be a calmer affair with the stalwart Angela Merkel running for a fourth term as Chancellor.

We believe that speculating about the outcome of this political drama and how it will change the face of the global economy is something best left to economists, a group, like the pollsters, whose predictions have come under increasingly widespread criticism in recent years.

We prefer to look at the facts and use our experience of having spent a lifetime working in real estate in the countries in which we invest to advise our clients on the best strategies to employ at any moment in time.

While the UK and the rest of the European Union work out the details of their divorce settlement, they will remain unavoidably reliant on each other for both trade and security. This is highly unlikely to change despite what some political commentators may say.

For all the hype that Brexit would destroy the UK economy, a look at the facts some six months on reveals a less apocalyptic outcome. Admittedly, we still don’t really know the details of the plan and some may argue it’s too early to tell, but the vote happened six months ago and that’s just the point: life goes on! Oxford Economics is currently predicting UK GDP growth of 1.6% in 2017, which is close to its estimate of 1.5% for the rest of Europe, while it also estimates that Q4 2016 UK growth should come in at 0.6%, which is in line with the previous two quarters.

Our team in the UK has first-hand experience of this. Following the referendum vote in June, we advised one of our clients to suspend the sale of a portfolio when the purchaser attempted a post-Brexit ‘chip’. In December, we brought the same portfolio back to market, selling it for more than the agreed pre-Brexit price. In the meantime, listed real estate share prices have bounced back, the FTSE is trading at an all time high and overseas investors continue to target real estate in the UK.

There have also been large currency fluctuations with the pound falling by 15% on a trade weighted basis since January 2016 and inflation is on the rise with the UK Consumer Prices Index forecast to average 3% for the year overall (Source: Oxford Economics).

What does this mean for investors looking to invest in Europe?

Perhaps the first and most obvious thing to understand is that while the European Union evolves or even disappears altogether, the collection of countries that is Europe will always be there. The EU is a relatively recent organisation, whose roots can be traced back to the end of the Second World War, but which was only formally established on 1 November 1993.

Europe is, and will remain for the foreseeable future, the second largest commercial real estate market in the world, comprising 32.5% of the total global volume (Source: RCA). Six of the top ten largest commercial real estate markets by size are in Europe. Within Europe, Paris alone boasts 40 million square metres of office space, approximately 2.5 times more than in the whole of Australia.

It is also the most liquid commercial real estate market in the world with cross-border capital accounting for 46% of all real estate transactions (Source: RCA).
The opinion of investors appears to support this view. A recent survey by INREV (European Association for Investors in Non-Listed Real Estate Vehicles) revealed that despite a backdrop of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, investors are optimistic about the prospects for commercial real estate.

The industry body estimates that €52.6 billion is earmarked for investment in real estate globally during 2017, an increase of €4.9 billion over last year. Of this, around €20 billion is targeted at Europe.

The UK, France and Germany are expected to attract the lion’s share of that investment with the UK and France coming in as joint favourites, followed by last year’s first choice, Germany.

Important source of diversification for real estate investors

In the current low-yield environment, pension funds and insurance companies are looking to diversify into commercial real estate as a way of accessing reliable, long-term liability-matching returns that used to be provided by the gilt of corporate bond markets.

While most of these institutions have invested in real estate for many years, most likely as part of a traditional core strategy, the level of sophistication in today’s real estate industry means that by moving up the risk curve to core-plus and value-add strategies, these investors are now able to access much higher yielding opportunities.

We estimate that a typical core strategy in Europe should be able to provide in excess of 8% total returns while a value-add strategy will generate between 12% and 14%.

For these investors, Europe is an attractive opportunity not only because of its size, but also because of its structure. As well as being the second largest commercial property market in the world, it is also one of the most heterogeneous, providing investors with access to a collection of idiosyncratic markets, each with its own unique profile of cities, buildings and tenants.

There are currently some really good opportunities in selected European markets to turn good quality assets into core real estate that will generate reliable income and some capital return. For example, we have identified some reposition to core opportunities for shopping centres in parts of the Netherlands and France. In Germany, the spread between prime and secondary office CBD yields is at a long-term high.

Most people who have worked in the industry or have had property exposure for long enough have lived through the highs and lows of various economic and political cycles, and experienced the effects, both positive and negative, on their real estate investments. The political events unravelling in Europe and elsewhere today are no different. The one truism to remember is that life goes on, and property markets endure!

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Research and Insights

Home Research Page 6
February 11, 2017

European property market update

Europe’s political environment has filled a lot of newspaper columns over the past 12 months. Elections and, in the case of Brexit, a referendum, have all generated volatility in financial markets. Of course while some investors see this volatility as a risk, others see it as an opportunity. It is the depth and diversity of Europe’s real estate market across a variety of countries, cities, regions and sectors which  makes it possible for investors to pursue a broad range of investment strategies, whatever their attitude to risk.

 

Focus on European cities

Following the UK’s decision to leave the EU last year, investment in German real estate overtook the UK for the first time, a trend which has continued into the first quarter of 2017. Despite this, London has seen increased levels of activity from Chinese investors, who continue to invest in the city, attracted by a combination of factors including the post-Brexit devaluation of the sterling and confidence that London will ultimately retain its position in the world order.

It is the strength of GDP growth in Europe’s major cities that is attractive to property investors. The dominant feature of the last 20 years has been the capacity of city economies to grow faster than the national average. Over the past decade, the three largest German cities have seen GDP growth 15% higher than the national average. London’s economy has expanded at an annual average rate of 2.9% compared to 1.2% for the UK and in Milan, growth is nearly double that of Italy.


Germany is the fourth largest economy in the world

Germany’s economy continues to grow and recorded a 1.8% rise in GDP in the final quarter of 2016, making 2016 the strongest performing year since 2011. Looking ahead to the rest of this year, GDP is predicted to grow by a further 1.5%, boosted by a recovery in exports and healthy consumer spending.

E-commerce continues to be an important driver of growth in the logistics and industrial sectors across Europe, with the popularity of these sectors particularly acute in Germany, leading to some yield compression. The country’s geographical position at the heart of Europe means that it is an important transit corridor and logistics hub for nine neighbouring countries, with more goods passing through Germany than any other country.

In 2016, take up of warehouse and logistics space totalled 6.75 million square metres, which exceeded the previous year’s record by 10%. Much of this demand (69%) was for space outside of the top five markets of Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich. The increased focus on regions like Stuttgart and Cologne was due to a lack of supply in the major centres.



Infrastructure in France

French GDP grew by 1.1% in 2016 and is forecast to increase to 1.4% in 2017. 2016 was also significant because it was the third year in a row that real estate investment exceeded €22 billion.

While domestic investors represent the most important source of capital in France, accounting for 67% of the total, the country also attracts capital from a diverse range of international investors: other European countries (16%), US (9%), Asia (5%) and the Middle East (2%).

The country is set to benefit from several large infrastructure projects, which are likely to create some interesting opportunities for investors, especially in the regional office markets.

These include the ongoing Greater Paris Project, which is a vast undertaking to strengthen Paris’s status as a 21st century metropolis, as well as the planned upgrade to France’s high-speed rail network (TGV), which will reduce journey times between Paris and some of the regional cities. For example, in 2017, the office market in Bordeaux is predicted to experience similar benefits to those already seen in Lyon and Marseille.



Italy has caught the eye of investors

Italy is the fourth largest country in Europe, the fifth largest exporter and the fourth largest consumer.

In the last four years, it has caught the attention of international investors. At a macro level, this is due to a more stable political environment and the implementation of much needed structural reforms. For real estate, changes to legislation have made it easier for landlords to lease property and changes to regulation have opened up the debt market to institutions other than the traditional bank providers.

While yields have tightened on traditional core assets, investors are starting to opt for more core+ and
value-add strategies, particularly in cities like Milan.

The office sector has been by far the biggest recipient of capital, followed by the retail sector. Milan is currently the most in favour with investors generally opting for large single asset purchases, while the Rome market is in recovery mode with investment levels increasing since reaching a low point in 2014.

 

Occupiers looking for the ‘complete’ package in the Benelux

There are some attractive opportunities in the Benelux office sector, particularly in the five core cities of Brussels, Luxembourg, Rotterdam, The Hague and Amsterdam. We have observed a polarisation in this market with some occupiers becoming focused on micro-locations as they look for the ‘complete’ package, incorporating good access to public transport and local amenities like housing and entertainment. Finding the best locations is a key issue for many occupiers as they look to retain high quality staff.

Investment volumes, specifically in the Dutch market, have been on the increase since 2012, reaching more than €14 billion in 2016. Most of this activity has been in the office sector where yields have tightened over the past two years, with up-take coming from the IT sector.



Denmark and the Nordics

Denmark is the smallest of the Nordic countries with its population concentrated in Copenhagen. Investment into the country’s real estate market totalled €8.62 billion in 2016, of which the majority was invested in the office market.

Across the Nordics, there is a diverse return profile by region. For example, the core and value-add markets in Sweden are tightly priced, whereas in Finland there is a greater spread between core and secondary yields, which creates an opportunity to manage assets to core. A trend towards longer lease lengths in Finland has also made it more attractive to overseas institutions.


An understanding of regions and sectors is the key

The European market is broad and deep, which allows for diversification across various regions and sectors. Cromwell’s European presence is strengthened by extensive local market knowledge, which allows us to identify opportunities specific to each city, and to react to various market influences independently.

Cromwell Property Group CEO, Mr Paul Weightman believes diversity across asset classes is important for investors to get a foothold on the Europe story:

“Each market has a different fundamental. Retail in France is more challenging; Germany, we think, has been very highly priced in terms of office. In Italy, we’re just starting to see more economic activity, particularly in the north, which will flow on
to improved demand for real estate.”

Despite short-term volatility brought about by political events or fluctuations in the economic cycle, the reality for many investors is that the size and depth of the European commercial real estate market will ensure it remains an important part of their overall real estate allocation. As the investment cycle evolves, they may switch investment strategy, but familiarity with the European market and the diversity it provides will help to ensure it remains attractive.